Water Stress in the Naryn River Basin

Around the world, meltwater from snow and glaciers has provided surrounding communities with water for irrigation and hydropower, but climate change is altering the timing and volume of the annual water flow cycle. This issue is pressing in eastern Kyrgyzstan, where the glaciers and snowpack of the Tien Shan Mountains form the headwaters of the Naryn River, which flows westward across Kyrgyzstan before crossing the border into Uzbekistan. A recent study in the journal Water by Alice F. Hill et al. analyzed water chemistry from the Naryn River Basin to find changes in the contribution of mountain headwaters to river discharges that flow downstream to agricultural areas.

Agriculture accounts for 29 percent of the country’s GDP (2010 figures) and more than half of its labor force. The study’s aim was to capture key hydrologic transitions over the diverse domain by using a hydro-chemical mixing model, known as End Member Mixing Analysis, to distill multi-variate water chemistry data from samples, in order to quantify water contributions from river discharge to agricultural areas serving larger populations. By using a remotely sensed product to quantify the rain, seasonal snow, and glacial melt inputs, the study found that when glacial ice mass decreases, it contributes less to river water supplies.

The Naryn River crosses three regions of the Kyrgyz Republic (Source: Robert Harding/Creative Commons).

Government Policies and Water Management

These trans-boundary water sources have been a topic of relations between the Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan since their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, with water resource management poorly coordinated between the five republics. Recently, new infrastructure, such as dams and diversions, have been developed, creating problems for neighbors that live downstream.

“The Kyrgyzstan government insists increased precipitation and snowmelt are to blame for natural hazards and fatalities. Scientists have yet to determine the cause of such weather anomalies in Southern Tian Shan,” said Ryskeldi Satke, a Kyrgyz journalist, in an interview with GlacierHub. “On the other hand, it was known that climate change worries experts and researchers over its impact on snow melt in the Tian Shan and Pamirs. Subsequently, more ground research and cooperation would be needed to explain weather patterns in the region.”

Kyrgyzstan has over 8,000 glaciers, accounting for 4.2 percent of the country’s territory. The consumption of irrigation water for agriculture represents 94 percent of total water use, while only three percent is allocated to households and industries. Livelihoods depend on the river flow from these glaciers, which have been shrinking since the 1930s, according to research. In order to better understand the implication of the infrastructure developments, Hill and her colleagues conducted a survey in both upstream and downstream communities. They asked questions relating to changes in water availability for irrigation, food, and recreation, as well as changes in household activities, estimated income, and income structure over the last 15 years.

Community Survey

Young men clearing an irrigation canal in Osh province, Kyrgyzstan (Source: USAID/Creative Commons).

The researchers conducted the survey across a 440 km stretch of the Naryn River to better understand the challenges that the people of the Naryn basin face in obtaining adequate water supplies. All communities reported an overall decrease in water access over the last 15 years. Therefore, some communities installed groundwater wells, mainly in higher portions of the basin.

Since the 1960s, the Toktogul district, for example, has been limited by low water availability, scarcity in lands and funds, and a lack of trust in the government. Unfortunately, farmers were not given the proper resources or equipment to build an irrigation or water distribution system, according to the study. There was a lack of government support for farmers who were unable to deal with the harsh conditions on their land, the researchers noted. Therefore, yields began to decrease and the irrigation systems deteriorated. This led the farmers and surrounding neighbors to believe that there has not been any positive socio-economic change within their communities.

According to the survey, downstream communities are more eager to migrate to other countries in search of a higher income, while upstream communities remain more optimistic of finding solutions to the water shortage. In an interview with GlacierHub, Cholpon Minbaeva, one of the co-authors of the study, stated, “The scope of the resettlement in the Toktogul reservoir was something that I didn’t anticipate. Almost all villages near the reservoir were resettled because of the reservoir construction.”

With climate change altering river discharge and increasing the likelihood of droughts, heat waves, and crop losses, the agricultural communities in the Naryn basin will continue to be significantly affected. Due to historic failed water management, water access in the region has been unreliable. To mitigate water stress, local, regional, and national government management programs need to improve the water resource infrastructure and delivery. More effective information management systems could also contribute to better management of the river basin’s water resources, including better control of water returned from irrigation systems to the river.

 

 

 

 

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Photo Friday: Upper Naryn River Valley, Kyrgyzstan

Last fall, I traveled in the upper Naryn River valley in Kyrgyzstan, taking part in a field trip organized by the University of Central Asia’s Mountain Society Research Institute. This organization put me in touch with a local researcher, Samat Kalmuratov, who accompanied me on visits to villages and nature reserves, serving as guide and interpreter.

The Naryn River drains the high glaciated peaks of the Tien Shan range in eastern Kyrgyzstan. It flows westward, forming the Syr Darya at its confluence with the Kara Darya River, and continuing through the agricultural Fergana Valley into Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In former times, it reached the Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth largest lake.

These photographs of the river, its valley and inhabitants show both significant continuity and major changes in recent decades.

 

Herding sheep on horseback in upper Naryn Valley, November 2016 (source: B. Orlove
Herding sheep on horseback in upper Naryn Valley, November 2016 (Source: B. Orlove).

 

Tien Shan mountains, Salken Tor National Park, November 2016 (source: B. Orlove)
Tien Shan mountains, Salken Tor National Park, November 2016 (Source: B. Orlove).

 

Unfinished hydroelectric plant, begun in 1980s, upper Naryn Valley, October 2016 (source: B. Orlove)
Unfinished hydroelectric plant, begun in 1980s, upper Naryn Valley, October 2016 (Source: B. Orlove).

 

Yaks in the upper Naryn River valley, October 2016 (source: B. Orlove)
Yaks in the upper Naryn River valley, October 2016 (Source: B. Orlove).

 

Tributary of the Naryn River, Salken Tor National Park, October 2016 (source: B. Orlove)
Tributary of the Naryn River, Salken Tor National Park, October 2016 (Source: B. Orlove).

 

Naryn town, site of a University of Central Asia campus, seen from the west, November 2016 (source: B. Orlove)
Naryn town, site of a University of Central Asia campus, seen from the west, November 2016 (Source: B. Orlove).

 

Boy filling water containers at a village well, upper Naryn Valley, November 2016 (source: B. Orlove)
Boy filling water containers at a village well, upper Naryn Valley, November 2016 (Source: B. Orlove).

 

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Recent Steps at the Mountain Societies Research Institute

Bernadette Dean, associate dean at UCA, at MSRI meeting (source: Ben Orlove_
Bernadette Dean, associate dean at UCA, at MSRI meeting (source: Ben Orlove)

Participants at a meeting held in Kyrgyzstan on 29-30 October 2016 reviewed recent developments of the Mountain Societies Research Institute (MSRI), a unit of the University of Central Asia (UCA). They discussed MSRI’s future directions, focusing on research, education and development programs. The participants included the five members of the MSRI Working Group that provides support and oversight to the Institute, as well as key personnel of the MSRI and senior staff of the UCA. The event built on an earlier meeting in 2015. It was followed by a two-day trip to Naryn province in Kyrgyzstan, with a visit to the first campus of UCA and several environmental facilities.

Bohdan Krawchenko, director general and dean of graduate studies at UCA, opened discussions at the meeting, held at UCA offices in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek. He explained the context of the university, acknowledging the challenges that Central Asia faces, particularly governance issues and the slow economic growth that results from weak commodity prices and a reliance on remittances. He pointed out opportunities to improve productivity and advance technological knowledge by building a new set of higher education institutions attuned to the region’s history and cultures.

UCA campus in Naryn (source: Ben Orlove)
UCA campus in Naryn (Source: Ben Orlove).

Krawchenko also emphasized accomplishments. The first UCA campus, in the town of Naryn, Kyrgyzstan, opened in 2016. Its recruitment efforts resulted in a large pool of applicants, from which they selected the top sixth, on a competitive basis. There are 71 students in the first cohort, a number which will increase to 150. The current student body is diverse, with a large number from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and a good representation from other countries in Central and South Asia. Moreover, 56 percent of the students come from small towns and rural areas, following the UCA’s mission to broaden its base beyond the capital cities and large towns.

He noted that the construction and student recruitment at the second campus, in Khorog, Tajikistan, is progressing well, with the opening date set for 2017, ahead of schedule. Work is advancing on a third and final campus, in Tekeli, Kazakhstan, as well. Krawchenko commented on the Institute of Public Policy Administration, another UCA unit broadly parallel to MSRI, which has had successful postgraduate certificate programs and a set of working papers that have attracted attention throughout the region.

MSRI researcher (left)and head of local water committee, discussing irrigation canal maintenance (source: B. Orlove)
MSRI researcher Samat Kalmuratov (left) and head of local water committee, discussing irrigation canal maintenance (source: B. Orlove)

Diana Pauna, the dean of arts and sciences, presented other developments at UCA. The preparatory program at the Naryn campus has succeeded in bringing the students to a fully international level of quantitative and English-language skills. She spoke about the steps that have been taken in faculty recruitment, potentially a challenge given the location of the campuses in provincial cities. Currently a quarter of the faculty come from North America and Western Europe, another quarter from India, Turkey and China, and half from Central Asia, reflecting the progress of the Central Asia Faculty Development Program.

Pauna then focused on the Earth and Environmental Sciences (EES) program, which will be the fourth and final department at UCA, along with economics and business, media and communications, and information technology, each of which offer concrete support to EES. She discussed the steps that have been taken to develop curriculum, providing practical laboratory and field-based experiences that provide strong local content and prepare the students for capstone projects which can lead directly to employment. She emphasized the importance of the program in linking Central Asia’s natural resources with development and sustainable livelihoods, and in addressing issues of climate change, such as glacier retreat. Bernadette Dean, the associate dean at UCA charged with directing undergraduate programs, joined Pauna in exploring the complementarities between MSRI’s research mission and the teaching focus of EES, and the potential for applied outreach programs as a way to develop these possibilities.

Shamsh Kassim-Lakha, the chairman of UCA’s Board of Trustees, joined the meeting by Skype for a full discussion of the EES program. The group paid close attention to the question of providing local content in curriculum. They discussed career paths for graduates, exploring capstone courses and internships that could build ties with local partners. Disaster risk reduction programs offer a concrete possibility in this region, where glacial retreat and other changes increase flood risk.

Marc Foggin, MSRI scientist, speaking at the MSRI meeting (source: Ben Orlove)
Marc Foggin, MSRI scientist, speaking at the MSRI meeting (source: Ben Orlove)

The second day of the meeting focused on the MSRI strategic plan, which has been developed by the director, Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt, along with two MSRI scientists, Marc Foggin and Christian Hergarten. It centered on three cross-cutting themes: climate change and adaptation; mountain livelihoods, well-being and globalization; and the sustainable development goals promulgated by the UN. Foggin discussed a program of Learning Landscapes, with long-term ecological research and monitoring, which could promote poverty alleviation by promoting and supporting ecosystem services. These Learning Landscapes could be sites for MSRI research as well as for EES instruction.

Foggin pointed out that the mountains of Central Asia are recognized as a global diversity hotspot, and that the location of the three branches of UCA in mountain provinces allows for extensive field research in close proximity to the campuses. He cited as an example of training at outreach the partnerships that have been established with 10 schools in Naryn province, where teacher support programs contribute to environmental monitoring. The discussion of the MSRI strategic plan concluded with a review of the publication’s programs and a consideration of achieving financial stability.

Snow at the pass between Bishkek and Naryn (source: Ben Orlove)
Snow at the pass between Bishkek and Naryn (Source: Ben Orlove).

On the morning of 31 October, the working group departed for Naryn, joined by Schmidt-Vogt, Dean, and two MSRI researchers from agronomy and biodiversity programs. After leaving Bishkek, the group reached a pass at 3000 meters which was already covered in snow. They stopped to take photographs of the herds of yaks that had come down from their summer pastures earlier that month, and then continued on to tour the campus and meet with officials and students at lunch and  dinner. They also visited a weather station at a school in a nearby village, Döbölü, discussing environmental monitoring and reviewing relations with the national meteorological service.

Ben Orlove and four UCA undergraduates from Tajikistan (source: UCA)
Ben Orlove and four UCA undergraduates from Tajikistan (Source: UCA).

The field visit provided ample opportunities to observe the issues of mountain sustainable development that had been discussed more abstractly in Bishkek. The group heard that pastoralists aced problems in haymaking because of the wet summer in 2016, a growing issue with greater seasonal variability in recent decades. They learned that low technical and educational levels have impeded grading and certifying meat to permit export to international markets, where prices are much higher than locally; only four firms in the lower western provinces of Kyrgyzstan have met these standards, but the mountain provinces, with abundant herds and pasture, lag behind.

The Central Asian subspecies of red deer at a nature reserve (source: Ben Orlove)
The Central Asian subspecies of red deer at Naryn Nature Reserve (Source: Ben Orlove).

Visits to Salken Tor National Park and Naryn Nature Reserve demonstrated the potential for biodiversity research and conservation. Kyrgyz scientists make active use of camera traps to observe wildlife, but have had difficulties in receiving permission to use radio collars, once again because of international standards that are difficult to meet in such remote, poor areas. The group showed great interest in the videos of snow leopards and bears at the former and a center for recuperation of a population of the vulnerable local subspecies of red deer, Cervus elaphus bactrianus, at the latter. They commented that UCA and MSRI had the potential to help these units to achieve greater self-sufficiency and ease their reliance on sporadic international support.

The final conversations focused on maintaining the ties between the working group, MSRI, EES and other units at UCA, and concrete discussions of future visits to Naryn, and to the new campus in Khorog as well.

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