Pakistan Could Be Left High and Dry Even If Nations Achieve Paris Climate Targets

The 2015 Paris agreement on climate change set the goal of keeping global, average  temperature rise “well below” 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-Industrial Age levels, and hopefully below 1.5 degrees Celsius. This month, new research published by scientists from the University of Hamburg predicts how these temperature changes will affect water availability in Pakistan.They found that the timing and abundance of water availability in Pakistan will be much altered in warmer world, and that means of adaptation will be crucial.

The study, published in the September issue of Advances in Water Resources, assesses three Himalayan watersheds in Pakistan: the Jhelum, the Kabul, and the Upper Indus River Basin. The Indus River Basin is estimated to supply water for 90 percent of Pakistan’s food production, and glacier melt is responsible for 50-80 percent of water flow in the basin.

These watersheds are particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature because of their altitude, Shabeh ul Hasson, the lead author of the study, told GlacierHub. Mountains are warming faster than the rest of the world. A paper published in September of 2017 in the journal Nature predicts a loss of up to 56 percent of the glacial area of the Hindu Kush and Himalaya region by the end of the century—even if nations achieve the Paris agreement goal of keeping temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

Caption: The Kunhar River, which is in the Indus Basin watershed. (Source: Wikimedia Commons

Hasson and his coauthors ran 80 simulations of the watersheds under discrete temperature increases of 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius. Using HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts), a resource which provides a selection of climate models, they predicted daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as average precipitations, for different conditions possible in the future. Rather than predicting changes in the region’s glaciers, the scientists envisioned water availability under five different scenarios: glaciers remaining intact and glaciers losing 25 percent, 50 percent, 75 percent, and 100 percent of their area. Of these situations, the most likely scenario, according to the study, is a 25 percent decrease in glacial cover in the Upper Indus Basin and a 50 percent decrease in Kabul and Jhelum. Together this amount of loss corresponds to a 38 percent decrease in the contribution of glacier melt to Pakistan’s water availability if global average temperatures increase 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

“We are definitely expecting that the temperature rise will be much, much more,” Hasson said.

As the glaciers melt, they will provide less reliable water. However, in the earlier stages of warming, the quick melting of ice and snow will create a dramatic increase of water influx in Pakistan, according to the study. Specifically, the researchers estimate median changes of a 34 percent increase in water availability under a 1.5 degree rise in temperature and a 43 percent increase under a 2 degree rise. “Hopefully we are talking about a century’s time,” Hasson said.

Water surpluses, along with droughts, are destructive to Pakistan’s agriculture, which forms the major portion of Pakistan’s economy, according to the nation’s Ministry of Water Resources.

“In recent years, there have been a lot of more frequent cases of flooding and more unmanageable amounts of water coming into the canals,” Ayesha Qaisrani, a research associate at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, told GlacierHub. “If the intensity of the water coming in is not right for the crop, then it really heavily damages the crops.”

Qaisrani authored a research paper, which was published last year in the journal Earth Systems and Environment, that evaluates the impacts of climate change on Pakistani farmers and assesses the ability of agricultural communities to adapt.

Irregular water availability is changing the crop cycles for many areas in Pakistan, she said. For instance, in some places the monsoons are becoming more intense but span shorter periods of time, destroying crops that thrive under more mild conditions.

Hasson’s research anticipates more precipitation from October to February, but a drier period from March to June, which will shorten the duration of snowpacks, making them a less reliable water source. The study also predicts a “substantial decrease in the monsoonal precipitation” from July through September.

The unpredictable nature of these changes—one year the monsoon might behave normally, for instance, and another it might not—makes it even more difficult for farmers to adapt, Qaisrani said, since they do not know which crops will thrive.

The situation is worse for small farmers, she said, because they often go into debt to buy feed, so if a crop fails, it affects subsequent crops, creating a vicious cycle. “There is a lot of out migration because of climate change,” she said.

Access to water sources is not equal among farmers either, Qaisrani explained. Although small farmers are larger in number, “the larger farmers that have acres and acres of land have more political power.” Those that can install groundwater pumps, for instance, get an edge over farmers that cannot afford them. Many farmers cannot afford products needed to adapt to climate change, such as drip irrigation technology, she said.

Caption: Pakistini farmers harvest wheat. (Source: U.S. Embassy Pakistan/Flickr

Hasson hopes his research will help policymakers in Pakistan prepare the country for changes in the climate. “We need to have more reservoirs to store the water,” he said. He is approaching stakeholders and policymakers to disseminate the information from his study.

Now that Hasson and his collaborators have predicted mean water availability under Paris agreement targets, they are working to study how increases in global temperature will affect hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts.

Hasson is hopeful that policymakers in Pakistan will help the country adapt. “They have to listen some time,” he said. But, he added, “I don’t know when.”

Caption: The areas studied (Source: Shabeh ul Hasson)
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Roundup: Expanding Glaciers, Appraising the Himalaya, and Ice Worms

Study shows a glacier is expanding

From Frontiers in Earth Science: “There is strong variation in glacier mass balances in High Mountain Asia. Particularly interesting is the fact that glaciers are in equilibrium or even gaining mass in the Karakoram and Kunlun Shan ranges, which is in sharp contrast with the negative mass balances in the rest of High Mountain Asia. To understand this difference, an in-depth understanding of the meteorological drivers of the glacier mass balance is required.”

Read the study here.

The outer domain (D1, 25 km, middle panel), with its nests. Left panel shows the 1 km domain of Shimshal catchment (D3), and right panel 1 km domain of Langtang catchment (D5). The catchment outlines are indicated by black contours and glacier outlines of GLDAS dataset (Rodell et al., 2004) by blue contours. (Source: Frontiers of Earth Science)

An appraisal of Himalayan glaciers

From Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy: “The present review takes stock of the growth of cryospheric research in India with reference to glaciers and snow in the Himalaya, which are sensitive marker of the climate change. Overview of the snout and mass balance data indicates accentuated rate of glacier recession during the 1970’s and 1980’s, particularly in the Central and NE Himalaya. Like elsewhere on the globe, the retreating trends are consistent with the hypothesis of the global warming resulting from the increasing anthropogenic emissions of Green Houses Gasses. In contrast, the Glaciers in the Karakoram region, Indus basin, fed by mid-latitude westerlies, show marginal advancement and/or near stagnation.”

Read the study here.

A view of the Himalaya (Source: orangems/Flickr)

Ice worms

From Proceedings of the Royal Society B: “Disentangling the contemporary and historical factors underlying the spatial distributions of species is a central goal of biogeography. For species with broad distributions but little capacity to actively disperse, disconnected geographical distributions highlight the potential influence of passive, long-distance dispersal (LDD) on their evolutionary histories. However, dispersal alone cannot completely account for the biogeography of any species, and other factors—e.g. habitat suitability, life history—must also be considered. North American ice worms (Mesenchytraeus solifugus) are ice-obligate annelids that inhabit coastal glaciers from Oregon to Alaska.”

Read the study here.

An iceworm (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

Read More on GlacierHub:

New Mountain Bike Trails Highlight Long Island’s Glacier Remnants

To Travel or Not to Travel

New Heights in the Himalayas: High-Altitude Weather Monitoring

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Roundup: Himalayan GLOFS, Glacier-Fed Rivers in Peru, and New Zealand’s Southern Alps

Trends in GLOF Risk in the Himalayas

From Nature: “Objectively estimating trends in GLOF frequency is challenging as many lakes form in terrain with limited access, making fieldwork impractical. In the HKKHN, outburst floods from glacier lakes initiated mainly between 4,500 and 5,200 m above sea level and some attenuated rapidly, possibly escaping notice in human settlements several thousand vertical metres below. Reliable reports on 40 GLOFs since 1935 are selective. We mapped these GLOFs, originally compiled by regional initiatives, highlighting 32 cases in the Central and Eastern Himalayas in contrast to the very few cases in the northwestern Hindu Kush–Karakoram (HKK) and Nyainqentanglha Mountains. We speculate that these 40 reports preferentially covered large or destructive cases, which makes the assessment of their frequency problematic. In trying to account for this reporting bias, our objective is to estimate GLOF frequency and its changes from a systematic inventory covering the entire HKKHN.”

GLOFs from the Himalayan glaciers can be damaging to surrounding communities. (Source: Karunakar Rayker/Flickr)

New Project Examines Changes in Peru’s River Systems

From Phys.org: “Remote communities in the Peruvian Andes, as well as communities downstream, depend on the water from melting glaciers and mountain ecosystems to provide them with food and power, and to support industry.

But climate change is increasingly putting that in jeopardy, posing a serious threat to future water resources and having potentially severe implications for the vulnerable populations living in river basins-fed by the glaciers.

Now a major research project is looking to establish the precise effects future changes in the glacial system might pose, and how agencies and the communities themselves can work together to mitigate the potential effects of changing water quantity and quality as the glacier retreat.”

Glaciers are extensive in Peru, and many of the nation’s people depend on glacier-red rivers for basic water needs. (Source: McKay Savage/Flickr)

Climate Change Likely to Impact Glacier-Fed Rivers in New Zealand

From International Journal of Climatology: “Future climate change is likely to alter the amount, seasonality and distribution of water available for economic use downstream of alpine areas, so there is a need to forecast glacier net mass loss when assessing future hydrological change. This issue is of considerable relevance to New Zealand, which relies heavily on hydro power for electricity generation. An important river system is the Waitaki, which contains eight hydro generating stations and has a significant input from seasonal snow and glacier melt. Thus, changes in glacier ice volume and atmospheric circulation have long term implications for energy production. The impacts of climate change on water resources are also critical for the Clutha River. This is New Zealand’s largest river with extensive hydro-electricity and irrigation assets. Third, there are close links between glaciers and the large tourism industry in New Zealand, which along with agriculture, is the major driver of the national economy. All these factors mean that there is growing economic concern as to what may happen in the future.”

New Zealand Southern Alps consist of small and large glaciers that respond differently to climate forces. (Source: CameliaTWU/Flickr)

Read More on GlacierHub:

Last-Chance Tourism Spurs Eco-Conciousness and Climate Change

Blood Falls: Origins and Life in Subglacial Environments

Nevado Ausangate Glaciers, Peru Retreat, and Lake Formation

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Barsuwat Glacier Causes Flooding and Artificial Lake in Pakistan

The previously dry Barsuwat riverbed in Ishkoman, Pakistan, was inundated with flood waters from the melting Barsuwat glacier last month. The water triggered landslides that blocked the flow of the Immit River and formed an artificial lake. On July 18, a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) event originating from the artificial lake produced significant flooding in nearby villages in the Ishkoman Valley of the Ghizer district, Gilgit-Baltistan. Two people were killed during the initial rush of floodwaters, and around 1,000 people were evacuated to safer areas ahead of the GLOF by Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs).

During the GLOF, the melting glacier released debris, including mud and stones, which damaged over 40 houses and cut off roadway access to upwards of 10 local villages. Part of the Karakoram Highway became submerged, while some smaller roads were washed away along with over a dozen vehicles and hundreds of cattle in the upstream areas.

Ishkoman Valley during the flooding event on July 18 (Source: Pamir Times/Twitter).

The Barsuwat glacier has been melting more rapidly than normal due to a May heat wave in the region that killed 65 people in Karachi, Pakistan. According to Dawn, an online Pakistani newspaper, the deputy commissioner of Ghizer, Shuja Alam, said that the glacier started melting on July 17, the night before the flooding event, at about 7 p.m. The floodwaters have since waned as the ice and debris have melted and washed away.

The evacuation of the villagers prior to the GLOF event was made possible by a community-based flood early warning system in Gilgit Baltistan developed by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), an organization that monitors glacier melt and the dams that can lead to lake formation and flooding.

Earlier in April, ICIMOD’s Director General David Molden had pledged “ongoing support to Pakistan’s government and community institutions” and highlighted the organization’s partnership in disaster risk management in Gilgit Baltistan as key to enabling locals to respond to the consequences of climate change, including an increase in glacial lakes and flooding events.

ICIMOD is currently collaborating with the Gilgit Baltistan Disaster Management Authority and the Aga Khan Agency for Habitat on disaster risk management in the area. These kinds of collaborations are becoming increasingly necessary as disasters like the one in July become more common. “Today, the fast melting glaciers pose the greatest disaster risk to Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral. I see massive deforestation that the region has experienced over the decades as a major factor behind this situation,” Ghulam Rasul, director general of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), told Dawn.

However, Ken Hewitt, professor emeritus of the department of geography and environmental studies at Wilfrid Laurier University, who spent his career studying glaciers in Northern Pakistan, warns of a greater threat to the region. “Bigger risks come from ice dams, of which there have been seven or more in the upper Ishkoman (Karambar tributary) since late 19th century,” he told GlacierHub.

He added that there is potential for one of these ice dams and resulting GLOFs from a recent advance of Chillinji Glacier. “Its terminus has advanced across the Karambar River, but not sealed a dam to date—though it has in the past,” Hewitt said.

News outlets in Pakistan have likened the July 2018 artificial lake formation in Ishkoman to the formation of Attabad Lake in Hunza River Valley, Pakistan, in January 2010. Attabad Lake was created after a natural rock landslide buried the village of Attabad and dammed the Hunza River. The lake grew to 21 kilometers across and over 109 meters deep.

The Ishkoman Valley lake is different, however, in that it does not have the same blockage characteristics that could withstand warming temperatures and height of the rising waters to form a permanent lake.

As the region looks to the future, Hewitt is keeping his eye on the Hasanabad Glacier in Hunza, about 50 kilometers downstream from Attabad, which is currently undergoing a massive surge. “It had the longest, fastest surge on record a century ago and is a unique glacier in other ways,” he said. He remains doubtful it will reach the Hunza River, but he cautions that it could form a dam on its large tributary, risking another GLOF in the region.

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Video of the Week: Celebrating International Yoga Day on a Glacier

This week, we take a look at a video showing how Indian soldiers celebrate International Yoga Day. The Indian army holds a tradition of practicing yoga on Siachen Glacier every year on this day despite the on-going tension in the region.

Siachen Glacier is located in the eastern Karakoram range in the Himalayas and is 6,700 meters above sea level. The video can be found on YouTube and shows how the soliders celebrate even under the most intense conditions.

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Irrigation a Potential Driver of Glacial Advance in Asia

Glaciers in the High Mountains of Asia (HMA), like most mountain glaciers around the world, are retreating due to climate change. However, in the Karakoram mountains of northwest HMA, glaciers have remained stable, and in some cases, have actually advanced. A recently published study in Geophysical Research Letters delved into one of the potential drivers behind this climatic irregularity, irrigation.

The idea that irrigation, a human-induced change to the environment for agricultural production, could regionally counteract climate change, another human-driven change, might seem a bit far-fetched. And to Remco J. de Kok, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, and Walter W. Immerzeel, three of the authors of the study who spoke with GlacierHub, it did at first start out as a wild idea. Nevertheless, previous studies, including Tuineburg’s own Ph.D. thesis, found that evaporation from irrigation in India was being transported by atmospheric winds to Himalayan areas where it fell as snow or rain, likely contributing to the increased glacial mass observed.

Diagram detailing how irrigation drivers glacial advances
How the presence of irrigation impacts local climate and glaciers (Source: Remco de Kok/Twitter).

The most famous of the advancing glacier areas is the Karakoram anomaly, first coined in 2005 by Ken Hewitt. According to Immerzeel, the term gained traction in subsequent remote sensing studies that partly confirmed the anomaly. As it turned out, the Karakoram range was not the only region with stable or advancing glaciers. Studies published in 2013 and 2017 also found positive mass balances in the Pamirs and the Kunlun Shan mountains northeast of the Karakorams.

Prior research pointed to atmospheric circulation patterns and a particularly seasonal pattern (precipitation was concentrated in winter). These studies were conducted across a large spatial scale, and therefore their proposed mechanisms should support stable and advancing glaciers uniformly across the region. Yet, the glaciers just south of Karakoram show some of the highest glacial melt rates in the region, notes de Kok, while at the same time glaciers in the Kunlun Shan region northeast of Karakoram exhibit positive mass balances. These differences in a relatively small geographical area led the authors to consider two hypotheses: either the glaciers are responding differently to similar climatic changes or that the glaciers are experiencing different climatic changes.

To assess these hypotheses, the authors selected China’s Tarim basin. According to de Kok, “It is adjacent to the areas of largest glacier growth and has some of the biggest increases in irrigation.” Next, the authors needed to assess whether recent irrigation increases in the basin were impacting neighboring mountain climates in a way that would be conducive to glacial growth.

Satellite image of the Tarim Basin
Satellite image of the Tarim Basin. The green to the southwest are the new irrigation areas potentially driving glacial advances (Source: Stuart Rankin/Creative Commons).

The authors utilized a regional climate model known as the Weather Research and Forecasting model, or WRF for short. The model was run under two scenarios: a historical or stagnant scenario and a recent change scenario. The historical scenario represented the difference between model runs with modern irrigation and no irrigation, along with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG) held at 1900 levels. On the other hand, the recent change scenario represented the intensification of irrigation over the period 2000 to 2010 and a concurrent increase in GHG concentrations.

By applying these two scenarios, the authors were able to more accurately depict climatic changes and evaluate whether the impact of irrigation is significant in comparison to climate change. The authors were then able to compare the two to see if either had a dominant influence on the regional climate.

After running the models, the first apparent impacts of irrigation were an increase in evapotranspiration, a decrease in summer daytime temperatures, and an increase in atmospheric moisture directly over the basin.

Photo of Muztagh Ata
Muztagh Ata, a mountain of over 24,000 feet in the western Kunlun Shan (Source: dreamX/Creative Commons).

Then things got interesting.

The model runs showed increased summer snowfall in Kunlun Shan, Pamir, and northeast Tibet. These increases were largest for the historical scenario with 1900 GHG levels and modern irrigation, showing that the increase was primarily caused by irrigation, not GHG. The authors also analyzed changes in net radiation, the difference between incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation. Across most of HMA, net radiation increased; conversely, in Kunlun Shan, net radiation decreased. This decrease is a result of a decrease in incoming solar radiation due to increased cloud cover and the increase in snow cover, which has a high albedo.

Map showing the changes to snowfall and net radiation
Changes to snowfall and net radiation in the Tarim basin region (Source: de Kok et al.).

The decrease in net radiation was found to counteract climate change’s enhanced greenhouse effect. Strikingly, when GHG were raised to current levels and irrigation was held at zero, the model results revealed an increase in net solar radiation across the entire region, signaling that irrigation is the principal reason for negative net radiation in Kunlun Shan.

While it was clear that increases in irrigation are leading to favorable conditions for glacier growth, where was this increased moisture coming from?

Model results pointed to the hypothesized Tarim basin as the main source of the increased moisture in the Kunlun Shan. The authors were able to corroborate this by conducting two model runs for the Tarim basin, one with no irrigation and one modern irrigation, while the rest of the region was held at modern levels. These runs revealed an increase in snowfall and a decrease in net radiation only when the Tarim basin had modern irrigation, confirming its influence.

Map of moisture source for summer snowfall in the Kunlun Shan
Map detailing the moisture source areas for Kunlun Shan summer snowfall (Source: de Kok et al.).

The irrigation of the Tarim basin is creating an advantageous environment for glacial growth, but the study is unable to attribute just how much this mechanism is contributing to the positive mass balance of the Kunlun Shan, a topic that will be the focus of future research, according to de Kok.

There’s also the question of sustainability for the recent increase in irrigation in the region as groundwater becomes more and more stressed and adverse ecological impacts in the otherwise arid Tarim basin take hold. A future reduction in irrigation could be bad news for glaciers, as the authors note it might “mean that the anomalous glacier mass balance in Kunlun Shan is of temporary nature.” Nonetheless, in a world where melting glaciers have become the new norm, stable glaciers, even if fleeting, are a welcomed respite.

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Photo Friday: Along the Karakoram

Known to many as the “roof of the world,” the Pamir Mountains are spread over one of the world’s most glaciated regions, cutting across parts of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and China. It is a region dominated by curtains of clouds, rocks, glacier ice, and snow, as well as pastoralists and their sheep.

Muztagh Ata, which translates directly to “ice-mountain-father” in the Uyghur language, is one of the region’s most picturesque peaks. Standing tall at over 7,509 meters, the mountain has a magnificent relationship to the lake at its feet. Located near China’s borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan, the glaciated peak is accessible through the marvel of engineering and perseverance that is the Karakoram Highway, the world’s highest international paved road. But it’s Photo Friday, so nobody has to try their luck on the Karakoram today.

 

A lone Kyrgyz horseman walks along the shore of Lake Karakul (Source: Dan Lundberg/Creative Commons).

 

Muztagh Ata makes the rule of thirds look easy (Source: Colegota/Creative Commons).

 

The Karakoram Highway offers stunning scenery, but conditions can be quite dangerous (Source: Saadzafar91/Creative Commons).

 

But who are we kidding? It’s worth the risks (Source: Nabeel Akram Minhas/Creative Commons).

 

The sign cautions drivers about sharp bends over the next 62 kilometers. Your Friday afternoon isn’t looking so bad anymore? (Source: Mahnoorrana11/Creative Commons).

 

 

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Samar Khan Becomes First Woman to Cycle on Biafo Glacier

Samar Khan on her bicycle (Source: Samar Khan).

In August 2016, Samar Khan, 26, became the first woman to cycle 800 kilometers to reach the Biafo Glacier in northern Pakistan, where she then rode at an elevation of 4,500 m on top of the glacier. Accomplishing one of the highest glacier rides in the world, she proved that glaciers can draw attention to some of society’s most entrenched issues, from climate change to women’s rights.

“In order to change the mindsets of our people, I chose to cycle on glaciers,” Khan told GlacierHub. “I wanted people to realize the importance of what we have, how to preserve it, and what our duties are toward these majestic landmarks.”

Khan reached Biafo Glacier after 15 days of cycling from Islamabad to Skardu, becoming the first Pakistani to accomplish the feat. She was accompanied by other cyclists at various times during her journey and was honored upon her arrival by the sports board of Gilgit-Baltistan. Prior to the Biafo trip, she had previously covered 1,000 km, cycling from Islamabad to the Pakistan-Chinese border. 

Picture of Samar Khan next to her bicycle on Biafo Glacier (Source: Samar Khan).

Biafo Glacier, the third longest glacier outside the polar regions, required Kahn to disassemble her bike and carry the parts, helped by porters, for four or five days up ice and snow to reach the remote glacier before riding it. She camped near the glacier in dangerously cold conditions, telling Images, a Pakistani magazine, “Camping on the glacier was not easy. I was so cold that I couldn’t sleep and later slept with the porters in a cramped space.”

Recognizing that climate change is impacting the glaciers, Khan plans to keep cycling. “I will be cycling on other glaciers, summiting peaks, and documenting it all to create awareness about climate change and its effect on our environment,” she said. “I am going for a peak summit of 6,250 m in Arandu (Karakoram Range), Skardu, and Gilgit-Baltistan on May 14th.” Gilgit-Baltistan is a mountainous administrative territory of Pakistan, home to five peaks of at least 8,000 m in height.

Sadaffe Abid, co-founder of CIRCLE, a Pakistan-based women’s rights group focused on improving women’s socioeconomic status, talked to GlacierHub about Ms. Khan’s achievement. “It’s not common at all. It’s very challenging. For a Pakistani women, it is very unusual, as women don’t ride bicycles or motorbikes. Their mobility is extremely constrained. So, it’s a big deal and its setting new milestones,” she said.

“I am the first Pak girl to break stereotypes and cycle to northern Pakistan,” Samar Khan told CIRCLE in an interview posted on Facebook.

Samar Khan on her journey, being assisted by a porter, who carried parts of her bicycle (Source: Samar Khan).

Khan has faced sexism and violence by going against the norms in Pakistan. She recounted a story to CIRCLE about her engagement to a man. When she met his family, they gave her a list of demands including not speaking Pashto and not using social media or her cell phone. When she refused, she was beaten and thrown out of a car. She ended up in the ICU and became depressed before eventually finding cycling.

“Steps taken like this boost the confidence of other ladies in underprivileged areas and make them aware about their basic rights,” Khan said. “It makes them realize their strengths and capabilities. The change begins when they start trusting themselves instead of listening to the patriarchal society.”

Khan told GlacierHub that she also faced criticism and disbelief of her accomplishment from other sources. “There was a trekking community who criticized my way of exploring Biafo Glacier, the most challenging and rough terrain for trekkers. I was going there on my cycle, which was really hard for them to accept,” she said. “But the mainstream media supported my efforts, and many international tourists have been attracted to the Karakoram ranges after my expedition. They have seen that Pakistan is the safest place for pursuing such activities.”

Khan plans to continue to break stereotypes on her bicycle (Source: Samar Khan).

In the future, Kahn hopes to pursue her goal of making the Pakistani cycling team and qualifying for the Olympics so she can win a gold medal for Pakistan.

“Thank you Samar Khan for your courage, creativity and determination,” added Abid. “Women are Pakistan’s most untapped resource. When women grow, families prosper and nations progress.”

 

 

 

 

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Roundup: Cycling, Drones and Living Entities

Roundup: Cycling, Drones and Two Glaciers

 

Female Cyclist’s Pioneering Ride On Biafo Glacier

From The Nation: “Pakistani cyclist Samar Khan is the first women in the world to ride cycle on the 4,500 meter high Biafo Glacier in the Karakoram Mountains of Gilgit Baltistan. With the passion of cycling, she raised her voice for social injustice and created awareness in the community to change the perception of people related to adventure sports and to bring the ‘Cycling Revolution’ to Pakistan like other countries to lessen the accidents, pollution and to bring healthy lifestyle.”

Read an interview with Khan here.

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Samar Khan, cyclist (Source: YouTube).

 

 

Monitoring Glacier Dynamics Using Drones

From The Cryosphere: “The glaciers of the Cordillera Blanca Peru are rapidly retreating as a result of climate change, altering timing, quantity and quality of water available to downstream users. Furthermore, increases in the number and size of proglacial lakes associated with these melting glaciers is increasing potential exposure to glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs)… Most satellite data are too coarse for studying small mountain glaciers and are often affected by cloud cover, while traditional airborne photogrammetry and LiDAR are costly. Recent developments have made Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) a viable and potentially transformative method for studying glacier change at high spatial resolution, on demand and at relatively low cost. Using a custom designed hexacopter built for high altitude (4000 – 6000 masl) operation we completed repeat aerial surveys (2014 and 2015) of the debris covered Llaca glacier tongue and proglacial lake system.”
Learn more about using drones to study glacier dynamics here.

Dieser Hexacopter wird von Herrn Oberbichler gesteuert... www.luftbilder.co.at
A version of a Hexacopter drone (Source: Gottfried Maurer/Flickr).

 

Two Glaciers Given Legal Status

From Times of India: “Ten days after it declared the rivers Ganga and Yamuna as ‘living entities’, Uttarakhand high court (HC) on Friday declared the glaciers from where the two rivers originate, Gangotri and Yamunotri respectively, as legal entities as well. The order delivered by Justices Rajiv Sharma and Alok Singh, who had also passed the order on the two rivers on March 20, said that the glaciers will have “the status of a legal person, with all corresponding rights, duties and liabilities of a living person.” This, the court said, was being done “in order to preserve and conserve them.”
Read more about the two glaciers here.

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Gangotri Glacier, a new “living entity” (Source: Prashant Menon/Flickr).

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Glacier Melt Threatens Medicinal Plants in Pakistan

Lack of access to health facilities is a massive problem facing developing countries. Zaheer Abbas et al. recently published a paper on the Karakoram Range in Northern Pakistan in which the communities have been relying on traditional methods for treating common physical ailments. Like many remote communities without access to modern health care, the Balti community have honed their traditional knowledge of local plants over the centuries using herbal treatments readily available to them in the Karakoram range. However, traditional knowledge is not well recorded in the region because medicinal plant concoctions are only passed down orally. This knowledge, if documented and shared, could inform other non-traditional medicine, according to Abbas et al. However, as R. Jilani et al. describe in another paper, if glaciers in Northern Pakistan start to melt, the reduction in the water resources could greatly affect the plants grown in the region, threatening the future use of Balti knowledge.

map_kashmir_standoff_2003
A map of the Karakoram Range (Source: Creative Commons).

The Karakoram Range, a large mountain range that spans across Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, India, and Tajikistan, is one of the most glaciated areas outside of the polar regions and also one of the most botanically diverse. The range is home to the Biafo Glacier, which is the third largest glacier in the Karakoram and the fourth largest in Asia. For now, as Abbas et al. explain, the glaciers in the Karakoram Range are stable and not experiencing glacier melt like other regions. This is due to the very high altitude of the glaciers and the fact that temperatures remain cold throughout the year. However, a paper by Rajiv Chaturvedi et al. explains that in climate scenarios where carbon emissions continue to increase, we can expect melting of the Karakoram glaciers to occur at a rapid rate. The region and its glaciers have not previously been studied in depth due to the area’s remoteness, high altitude and harsh climate. Adding additional complications to future research is the fact that there is no weather station in the region, so temperature readings typically come from Skardu, 55 km away. This raises questions about the future impact of climate on the use of medicinal plants and traditional Balti knowledge.

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A picture of Thymus Linearis (Source: Dinesh Valke/Creative Commons).

For their Karakoram study, Abbas et al. interviewed 69 inhabitants of the region, including five herbalists, in order to understand how regional plants are used by the local communities for medicinal purposes. As Abbas et al. explain, many modern drug discoveries have been based on medicinal plants used by indigenous people. For this study, the team explored a total of 63 plant species, and with the help of the Balti people, categorized the plants into uses for 11 common diseases and disorders. They also looked at  how effective the plants were at resolving those particular health issues based on a scale of 1 to 5 (5 being most effective). The common health issues ranged from anything from a common toothache to kidney stones. The study also showed the diversity of the plant parts used in the remedy, including flowers, seeds, leaves, and in some cases, the entire plant. The majority of the species studied were indigenous to the Tormik Valley due to its microclimate. The Tormik Valley is lush and fed by freshwater streams and springs.

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A photo of Hippophae Rhamnoides (Source: Jean Tosti/Creative Commons).

Of the 63 species examined, three of them were particularly valuable due to their effectiveness, and each scored a 4 or 5 on the scale. Thymus linearis (a shrub with small dark purple blooms), commonly known as Himalayan thyme or common thyme and belonging to the Mint family, is used by the Balti people to treat abdominal pain and vomiting. Hippophae rhamnoides, commonly known as sea-buckthorn (a tree with bright orange seeds) is used to treat a multitude of disorders, including arthritis pain, eczema and urinary disorders. Convolvulus arvensis, a winding weed and relative of the morning glory, when ingested as a whole plant, is used to treat constipation.

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A photo of Convolvulus Arvensis (Source: Farbenfreude/Creative Commons).

Interestingly, Abbas et al. share that the upper and lower parts of Northern Pakistan have unique ethnobotanical traditional knowledge. The communities in the neighboring Skardu valley, located at the junction of the Indus and Shigar Rivers, for example, use the same Thymus linearis plant to treat colds and pneumonia. While they may use similar plants depending on the availability, communities sometimes use the plants in different ways. In some cases, they may use plants for activities beyond food and medicine, such as for building huts and fences.

Ethnobotany, the study of interactions between humans and plants, is especially important now as the documentation of traditional knowledge decreases with time. The Balti community demonstrates how important traditional knowledge of plants can be. The traditional knowledge cultivated within these communities can provide important data to help inform health care policy. However, if melting begins to affect the glaciers in the Karakoram Range, these plants may be entirely destroyed.

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Roundup: Blue Lakes in Antarctica, Yak Dung and River Gauges in Asia

This Week’s Roundup:

Blue lakes on an East Antarctic glacier are a troubling sign, scientists say

From Yahoo News:

Iceberg melting in East Antarctica
Source: Yahoo News.

“British researchers have discovered a troubling trend in East Antarctica: As air temperatures become warmer each summer, more and deeper lakes are showing up atop Langhovde Glacier.

Their study, published this month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, is the first to monitor the meltwater pools for an extended period of time in that part of the icy continent.”

Click here to learn more about this troubling trend.

Yak dung is helping melt Tibetan glaciers

From Forbes:

Chinese glaciers are melting at accelerating rates.
Chinese glaciers are melting at accelerating rates. Source: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images.

“Scientists had long assumed that India and China—two of the world’s leading sources of black carbon pollution—were responsible for what fell on the glaciers in Tibet and the Himalayas[….] Instead, he found that a lot of the black carbon is local. While power plants in China and fires in India do contribute black carbon, in the remote interior of the Tibetan Plateau it appears to come mostly from burning yak dung and other immediate sources.”

Click here to read more about the small but mighty power of yak dung.

 

Pakistan expands glacier monitoring in effort to cut disaster risk

From Thomson Reuters Foundation News:

River monitoring experts of the Pakistan Meteorological Department plant a river flow gauge in flood-prone Bagrot river
River monitoring experts of the Pakistan Meteorological Department plant a river flow gauge in flood-prone Bagrot River in Gilgit, in northern Pakistan. Source: TRF/Saleem Shaikh.

“Pakistan will invest $8.5 million to expand a network of glacier monitoring stations tracking the pace of glacial melt in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan mountain ranges, in an effort to strengthen early warning systems and reduce the impact of flooding in the South Asian country.”

Click here to learn more about Pakistan’s new glacial monitoring research program.

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Researchers Question Glacier Study

This article has been republished on GlacierHub and was originally posted on the personal blog of Joseph Michael Shea. Shea is a glacier hydrologist with the International Center for Integrated Mountain (ICIMOD) and is currently based in Kathmandu, Nepal. Follow him on Twitter here

A paper published last year in the Indian journal Current Science (pdf) has recently been raised in the Indian parliament. A number of scientists have been rightfully critical of this paper in different online forums. In this post, I’m going to take a quick look at the results of the paper, which are surprising to anyone familiar with the current state of Himalayan glaciology.

Why are the results surprising? Based on a sample of 2018 glaciers, the paper’s authors suggest that nearly 87% of the glaciers in the region have stable snouts, while 12% have retreating termini, and < 1% are advancing.

There are a number of issues with these figures, which lead the authors to the incorrect conclusion  that glaciers in the region are actually in steady state. In no particular order, these issues are:

  1. Glacier snout position is determined by a complex range of factors, including climate, dynamics, and lag times. Over short periods (i.e. less than 10 years, as in this paper) the behaviour of the terminus may not be indicative of the overall health of a glacier.
  2. Glacier retreat is a very different thing from glacier mass loss. Glaciers lose mass primarily due to downwasting (surface lowering), not terminus retreat. And study after study has confirmed that glaciers across the region (except for the Karakoram) are losing mass.
  3. The position of the terminus on debris-covered glaciers can be  difficult to interpret, and it will not respond to climate change in the same way as the terminus on clean (debris-free) glaciers. The authors do not distinguish between debris-covered and clean glaciers in their terminus assessments.
  4. Its not clear how the 2018 glaciers were sampled. There are over 54,000 glaciers in the HKH region, and while a 3% sample size is not too bad, biased sampling for debris-covered or large glaciers make extrapolations to the entire population problematic.

Finally, the “stable” glacier examples given in the paper actually show glaciers in retreat! Here is a Landsat pair (data available at www.earthexplorer.usgs.gov) from 2001 and 2014 for the Gangotri Glacier, in the Garwhal Himalaya (Figure 7 in theCurrent Science paper):

gangotri

Not only is the  Gangotri (the main north-flowing glacier in the center of the image) in retreat, but you can also literally see the downwasting occur as the distance between the active ice surface and the large lateral moraines gets bigger. Smaller glaciers throughout the region also appear to be in retreat.

The authors also use the example of Siachen Glacier in the Karakoram Range (Figure 8 in the Current Science paper). This is the terminus of a massive glacier system (ca. 700 km²) and the Landsat pairs I pulled from 2000 and 2013 also appear to show retreat and deflation at the terminus:

Siachen

Bottom line: the Current Science paper is simply not credible. The conclusion that > 80% of glaciers in the region are stable is based on incorrect interpretations of satellite imagery, a possibly biased sampling method, and an unjustified reliance on short-term changes in terminus position as an indicator of glacier health.

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