COP24 President Highlights Risk of Political Instability During NYC Visit

Michał Kurtyka, COP24 president and Poland’s energy minister, visited GlacierHub’s home campus of Columbia University on 24 January. Kurtyka was in New York City for meetings at the United Nations, where he presented the results of COP24 in Katowice and participated in a major UN Security Council debate on climate-related threats.

Before his appearance at the UN, Kurtyka joined Columbia faculty and students for a round-table discussion, hosted by Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and co-sponsored by the Committee on Global Thought. Kurtyka gave opening remarks on the achievements of COP24, including a detailing of the challenge of forming international consensus. A discussion followed, which was moderated by Jonathan Elkind, CGEP Fellow and Senior Research Scholar. The conversation centered on climate change issues, including climate-related disasters on international peace and security and the recently held COP24, which is the 24th annual meeting of signatories to the UN Convention on Climate Change.

Minister Michał Kurtyka, COP24 president, celebrates the completion of the Katowice Rulebook in December 2018 (Source: UNClimateChange/Flickr)

 

Kurtyka, who presided over COP24, gained diplomatic fame for his triumphant leap off the table at the closing ceremony in Katowice. COP24 came down to an 11th hour resolution, as many recent COPs of significance, like COP15 in Copenhagen and COP21 in Paris, have tended to do. The result was the so-called Katowice Rulebook, which operationalizes the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Kurtyka praised the Rulebook, which he said “gave life to the Paris Agreement,” providing clarity on how, when, and according to which formula, all the countries of the world must act to achieve their pledged goals.

Central to the Katowice Rulebook is the concept of a “just transition,” whereby countries address social consequences of their shifts toward low-carbon economies.

In high mountain regions, glacial melt is a source for hydropower, a crucial component for many countries to achieve clean energy goals. Runoff from glaciers is also a chief supply for irrigation and clean drinking water. Tension exists in some glacier-fed basins, such as the Indus River, which lies between India and Pakistan—two countries where deep-seated animosity runs high. As glaciers near peak melt in coming decades, these pressures are unlikely to ease.

Minister Kurtyka sat down with Columbia students and professors before participating in major UN Security Council talks on climate change (Source: Carolyn Marino).

 

Kurtyka acknowledged the existential threat climate change poses and its potential to “create inflammatory ground where conflict can breed.”

A GlacierHub reporter asked Kurtyka about the challenges facing countries transitioning to renewable energy, particularly those dependent on meltwater from glaciers. “We have right now more climate and environment refugees than war refugees in the world,” Kurtyka replied. “With big rivers being exhausted, and also polluted enormously, we should expect, unluckily, lots of drama in this regard. Whether we can do something about it, I hope so. It might be extremely painful.”

Minister Kurtyka listens to a question from a GlacierHub reporter on the challenges facing countries reliant on glacial melt water (Source: Michał Kurtyka/Twitter)

 

The following day, at the UN Security Council, on which Poland currently holds a rotating seat, Kurtyka discussed tools for defusing potential climate-induced instabilities. He stressed the importance of conflict anticipation and prevention by equipping nations with early warning information gathering systems, aimed especially at states predisposed to such risks. One such exposed country is the Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan. The Kazakh representative, Kanat Tumysh, warned of his country’s increasing vulnerability due to glacial melt, which threatens to exhaust the region’s irrigation and drinking water by 2050.

At the meeting, Pavel Kabat, Chief Scientist at the World Meteorological Organization noted “the short-term effects of leaving glacier melt unchecked include increased flooding.” Kabat added: “The long-term threats will affect water supplies for millions of people.” The WMO chief’s comments marked the first time the international organization has briefed the Security Council on climate and extreme weather issues.

The WMO, seated adjacent Minister Kurtyka, briefed the UN Security Council on climate and extreme weather for the first time (Source: Michał Kurtyka/Twitter).

 

In 2017, a UN Security Council resolution recognized the adverse effect of climate change on political stability. Addressing the threat, though, has been typically left to other bodies like the UN Development Program.

The UN Security Council climate security meeting marks a turning point in the evolution of the way the international body regards climate change. No longer is climate change perceived as a concern limited to development and well-being, but is increasingly viewed as an immediate threat to peace and stability. At the meeting, the WMO chief announced that a position had been established at UN Headquarters for a dedicated WMO officer, an indication of the Security Council’s seriousness. The officer will provide expert information to UN strategic decision makers.

Further Reading

GlacierHub compiled COP 24 implications for the cryosphere in a December post, “Glaciers Feature Prominently at COP 24.”

Photo Friday: Illustrators Remember COP24

This Photo Friday, we have several cartoons referencing COP24, or the 24th meeting of the “Conference of Parties,” brought together by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). COP24 recently took place in Katowice, Poland, from 2-14 December.

This particular cartoon, created by French illustrator Faro Dessinateur, points to ongoing tensions in climate change policy. In it the man in the suit says, “Soon the end of the world,” whereas the man in the yellow vest, representing the demonstrations over economic issues currently occurring in France, says, “Soon the end of the month.” In France, a new gasoline tax designed to bring down France’s emissions did not include any social or economic justice positions. Faro captions this cartoon with “Retour de … retour de !!!” or “Return of #COP24…return of #demonstration #fear !!!”

“Retour de … retour de !!!” (Source: Faro Dessinatour/Twitter).

 

This next cartoon, created by “stephff cartoonist,” who is a “full-time professional political cartoonist living in Bangkok,” references the tensions at COP24 between the throngs of youth activists, including one particularly moving speech by a young activist, and the implied message to them by world leaders.

This cartoon was created by “stephff cartoonist” (Source: stephff cartoonist/Twitter).

 

Next is New York Times’ cartoonist Patrick Chappette, who integrated human inaction directly into the human activity causing climate change.

A cartoon by New York Times’ Patrick Chappette (Source: Chappatte Cartoons/Twitter).

 

Lastly, here is a cartoon from Brandan E. Reynolds, showing us his perspective on the futility and lack of progress he witnessed at COP24 by representing Earth as a bomb with its’ fuse lit, relying on a gas mask to breathe.

A cartoon from Brandan E. Reynolds (Source: Brandan E. Reynolds/Twitter).

 

 

Glaciers Feature Prominently at COP24 in Poland

From 2-14 December 2018, 197 countries gather in Katowice, Poland, for the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or better known as COP24. During these two weeks of negotiations, countries will attempt to finish what they started in Paris three years ago. In Paris, parties set 2018 as the deadline to come up with robust plans for their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which will include significant reductions in carbon emissions as well as an increased commitment to sustainable development.

Mountain countries are taking an active role in this year’s conference, and the impact of future warming scenarios on glacier melting, sea level rise, and mountain communities has been a prominent point of discussion throughout.

16 November 2018

Postcards created by over 125,000 children from around the world are compiled into a mosaic at the base of Switzerland’s Aletsch Glacier, spelling a message across the snow. “STOP GLOBAL WARMING #1.5 DEGREES C,” it reads, serving as a gesture to countries preparing for COP24. According to Swiss glaciologists at the University of Zurich, the Aletsch glacier, though currently the largest expanse of continuous ice in Western Europe, is receding at a rate of 12 meters per year, and it could completely disappear by 2100.

The quote references the findings of the IPCC Special Report, Global Warming of 1.5ºC, published in October 2018. In order to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change, the report urged limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius instead of the 2 degrees Celsius agreed upon in Paris three years ago.

3 December 2018

“We can’t afford to fail in Katowice,” says UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres during his opening remarks at COP24. He thinks that public will to fight climate change has faded since Paris in 2015, and now climate change is “running away from us.” Notable climate change impacts detailed in the IPCC special report, such as increasing temperatures, sea level rise, and receding glaciers, are happening faster than we expected.

Speaking up for small states in attendance, Nepal’s President Bidhya Devi said that Nepal has “been bearing the brunt of disproportionate impact of climate change despite being a low carbon-emitting country… We feel as if we have been penalised for the mistakes we never made. It is incumbent on the international community to ensure that justice is done.”

4 December 2018

UNESCO, in partnership with the Norwegian GRID-Arendal Foundation, presents a new report, titled “Andean Glacier and Water Atlas: the impact of glacier retreat on water resources,” which details the consequences of glacier retreat on water availability and security for communities who depend on glaciers for drinking water, hydropower, agriculture, and other industries. Since the 1980s, when Andean glaciers were in a period of peak discharge, there has been less and less meltwater each year. This has huge negative impacts on communities who depend on glacial meltwater, and even more so during times of drought.

Precipitation trends suggest that snow cover will continue to decrease, along with temperatures rising 2-5 degrees Celsius in the tropical Andes and 1-7 degrees Celsius in the southern Andes. The report further estimates that even under moderate warming scenarios, low-altitude glaciers in the tropical Andes could lose 78 to 97 percent of their volume in the 21st century.

  • Peru, home to the largest number of tropical glaciers on the continent, has seen extremely rapid glacier retreat, with very few, brief intermittent periods of advancement.
  • Venezuela’s only remaining glacier will likely cease to exist by 2021.
  • Bolivia’s glaciers have lost more than two-thirds of their volume since the 1980s.
  • Colombia is also experiencing rapid glacier retreat; by 2050 the sole survivors will be the largest glaciers at the highest altitudes.
  • Ecuador’s glaciers have been subject to dramatic losses in the last 50 years.
  • Chile and Argentina are seeing accelerating melting among low-lying freshwater and tidewater glaciers in Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego.

5 December 2018

The World Health Organization (WHO) releases the COP24 special report: health and climate change. The report implicates anthropogenic climate change as the source of huge challenges for human health. The same industries who emit greenhouse gases, which warm the planet, are also responsible for emitting PM2.5, which harms human health. Within the public health and climate change conversation, glaciers receive a small but important cameo on black carbon. Black carbon, a by-product of inefficient combustion (from cookstoves, diesel engines, biomass, etc.) is second only to CO2 emissions in its global warming contribution. 

Not only is black carbon important on a global scale, but it also has impacts on regional climate systems. Black carbon works to accelerate glacier retreat in mountainous regions as well as the Arctic. As it settles, black carbon darkens a glacier’s surface, absorbing instead of reflecting heat, and inducing glacial melting.

Read more about black carbon on GlacierHub.

The Global Carbon Project reports that global CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 2.7 percent by the end of 2018. Following a brief stagnation in global CO2 emissions from 2014-2016, emissions rose by 1.6 percent. To limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (or briefly overshoot it and come back down), global emissions need to be drastically decreasing, not increasing, and at current levels the world will certainly exceed this threshold by 2030.  

7 December 2018

COP24 Side Event – Mountain regions moving towards carbon neutrality

This side event’s keynote speaker, Eric Nanchen, is the director of the Foundation for Sustainable Development in Mountain Regions (FDDM). His talk covered climate change impacts and vulnerability of mountain regions, in the context of laying foundations for sustainable development. He also discussed the Mountain Research Initiative’s #VanishingGlaciers campaign, which is also being promoted at COP24. Deputy Secretary General of the Alpine Convention, Marianna Elmi, discussed steps that Alpine countries are taking toward climate neutrality, for example, coming up with a climate target system for 2050. 

10 December 2018

Newly released maps from NASA indicate that a group of four glaciers on the eastern coastline of Antarctica have been losing ice over the last decade. Since 2008, these four glaciers, which are located just to the west of the massive Totten glacier, have lost about 9 feet of their surface height. Prior to these findings, East Antarctica was thought to be much more stable than its western counterpart.

11 December 2018

COP24 Side Event – International Mountain Day – Mountain adaptation: Vulnerable peaks and people

On International Mountain Day, UN Environment releases two reports: Mountain Adaptation Outlook Series – Synthesis Report, and its more regionally focused counterpart, Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. The same day, in an UNEP press release, Joyce Msuya, Acting Executive Director at UN Environment says, “Mountain ranges are extremely complex ecosystems home to some of the most marginalized and vulnerable communities. It is critical that we focus on helping these communities adapt to changing climate in mountain regions.”

The synthesis report begins by framing the importance of mountain ecosystems, which cover 25 percent of the Earth’s landmass, house 15 percent of the world’s population, and provide essential ecosystem services to over half the world’s population. The report then goes on to call mountainous regions the “frontline of climate change.” Mountainous regions are subject to altitude amplification, whereby warming at high altitudes actually occurs at a faster rate than the global average, much like it does at the poles. Almost every mountain in the world is seeing substantial glacier retreat, which impacts ecosystems all the way downstream. In addition, the steep, sometimes unstable terrain leaves mountain communities more susceptible to floods and landslides. The synthesis report strives to capture regional differences in primary risk factors, climate change impacts, and current policy gaps in order to identify potential adaptation measures for each region.

The second report specifically targets the Hindu Kush Himalaya, and is actually part of a progressive series which has previously covered other mountainous regions around the world. The Hindu Kush Himalaya are of particular importance because it is already one of the most disaster-prone regions on Earth. Further, the report states this region could warm upwards of 4-5 degrees Celsius by 2100. The disproportionate warming effects of climate change at altitude, coupled with increased severity of precipitation events and the high probability of natural disasters in Hindu Kush Himalaya all work in tandem to make the region even more vulnerable to global warming.

12 December 2018

Side Event – IPCC Special Report on 1.5 Degrees, NDCs and Cryosphere: Pathways for Both High Urgency and Ambition

This event was focused on the IPCC Special Report, Global Warming of 1.5ºC, and working within the emissions constraints set by the report to minimize any further damage incurred by positive global warming feedbacks such as sea level rise and other impacts on mountainous and polar areas. Discussion was focused primarily on how to incorporate cryosphere considerations into the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCS) for 2020 in order to minimize future risk and impact. 

During closing remarks for the COP24 High-Level Segment of the Talanoa Dialogue, the Secretary General makes note of three reports published in the past few days that “added to the long list of warnings signals.” Among them is the special WHO report on human health and climate change and NASA’s research showing signs of glacier melting in East Antarctica, which are both discussed above. He used these current events to show that we cannot ignore the rapidly accumulating effects of climate change, and to encourage countries to participate in successful policy-creation during COP24’s final days.  

 

Video of the Week: ‘Claim the Climate’ Protest in Belgium

This week’s video follows the commencement of the UN Climate Change Conference 2018, COP24. This year’s conference is located at Katowice, Poland. The conference, which takes place from 2-14 December, has definitely gotten many people riled up about climate change. Over 65,000 people came out for the “Claim the Climate” demonstration on Sunday, 2 December in Brussels, Belgium. Protestors marched through the Belgium capital toward the European Union headquarters, holding banners saying “Stop Climate Criminals” and “There is no Planet B.” As voiced in the video, they hope to raise awareness on the pressing concerns of climate change and put pressure on political leaders to take action.

Discover more glacier news at GlacierHub:

Are White Whales Resilient to Climate Change?

Then and Now: Understanding John Muir’s Ideology

A Glacial Escape: Connecting Past, Present & Future in the Novel “Antarctica”