Posts Tagged "glof"

Roundup: GLOFs, Presidential Warnings, and Glacial Lakes

Posted by on Aug 22, 2016 in All Posts, Featured Posts, Roundup | 0 comments

Roundup: GLOFs, Presidential Warnings, and Glacial Lakes

Spread the News:ShareObama: Climate Change ‘Could Mean No More Glaciers In Glacier National Park,’ Statue of Liberty From Breitbart:  “During Saturday’s Weekly Address, President Obama stated, “the threat of climate change means that protecting our public lands and waters is more important than ever. Rising temperatures could mean no more glaciers in Glacier National Park. No more Joshua Trees in Joshua Tree National Park. Rising seas could destroy vital ecosystems in the Everglades, even threaten Ellis Island and the Statue of Liberty.” To read the full transcript of the President’s Weekly Address, click here.   Melting Glaciers Pose Threat Beyond Water Scarcity: Floods From VOA News:   “The tropical glaciers of South America are dying from soot and rising temperatures, threatening water supplies to communities that have depended on them for centuries. But experts say that the slow process measured in inches of glacial retreat per year also can lead to a sudden, dramatic tragedy. The melting of glaciers like Peru’s Pastoruri has put cities like Huaraz, located downslope from the glacier about 35 miles (55 kilometers) away, at risk from what scientists call a ‘GLOF’ — Glacial Lake Outburst Flood.” Click here to read more about the risk of glacial lake outburst floods from GlacierHub’s founder and editor, Ben Orlove.   Yukon has a new lake, thanks to a retreating glacier From CBC News:  “Yukon has lost a river, and now gained a lake, thanks to the retreating Kaskawulsh glacier. Geologists and hikers first noticed earlier this summer that the Slims River, which for centuries had delivered melt water from the glacier to Kluane Lake, had disappeared — the glacial run-off was now being sent in a different direction. Now, the level of Kluane Lake has dropped enough to turn the remote Cultus Bay, on the east side of the lake, into Cultus Lake. A narrow channel of water that once connected the bay to the larger lake is gone, exposing a wide gravel bar between the two.” To read more, click here. Spread the...

Read More

New Study Offers Window into Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Posted by on Aug 11, 2016 in All Posts, Featured Posts, Science | 0 comments

New Study Offers Window into Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Spread the News:ShareA recent geological study has shed some light on the cause of a major, yet elusive destructive natural hazard triggered by failed natural dams holding back glacial lakes. The findings show how previously unrecognized factors like thinning glacier ice and moisture levels in the ground surrounding a lake can determine the size and frequency of Glacier Lake Outburst Floods, or GLOFs. The risks of these glacial floods are generally considered increasingly acute across the world, as warming atmospheric temperatures prompt ice and snow on mountain ranges to retreat and to swell glacial lakes. Landslides in moraines as triggers of glacial lake outburst floods: example from Palcacocha Lake (Cordillera Blanca, Peru), published in  Landslides in July 2016, centers its study on Lake Palcacocha in the Cordillera Blanca mountain region of central Peru.  Since Palcacocha is one of almost 600 lakes in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range dammed by glacial moraines, the population of the region lives under serious threat of GLOFs. The Landslides article is a step in understanding a previously understudied geological phenomenon.  As little as five years ago scientists acknowledged the lack of research on the subject. “We don’t really have the scientific evidence of these slopes breaking off and moraine stability… but personal observations are suggesting there are a lot of those…” said Ph.D. environmental historian Mark Carey in a 2011 video where he describes GOLFs.   Glacial Lake Outburst Flood risks do not always emanate from mountain glacier meltwater that flows downstream. As this study shows,  in some instances, trillions of gallons of water can be trapped by a moraine, a formation of mixed rock, which forms a natural dam.  A weakening over time, or a sudden event, such as a landslide, could then result in the moraine dam’s collapse. The massive amount of water is suddenly then released, and a wall of debris-filled liquid speeds down the mountainside with a destructive force capable of leveling entire city blocks. GLOFs have presented an ongoing risk to people and their homes dating back to 1703, especially in the Cordillera Blanca region, according to United States Geological Survey records.  In December of 1941, a breach in the glacial moraine restraining Palcacocha Lake led to the destruction of a significant portion of the city of Huaraz and killed approximately 5,000 people. Scientists and government agencies, like the Control Commission of Cordillera Blanca Lakes created by the Peruvian government following the 1941 GLOF, have recognized the need to better understand and control GLOFs.  The study found that as global temperatures rise and glaciers retreat, greater amounts of glacier melt water will continue to fill up mountain lakes, chucks of ice will fall off glaciers, and  wetter moraines will become  more prone to landslides. The team of mostly Czech geologists and hydrologists (J. Klimeš; J. Novotný; I. Novotná; V. Vilímek; A. Emmer; M. Kusák; F. Hartvich) along with Spanish, Peruvian and Swiss scientists (B. Jordán de Urries; A. Cochachin Rapre; H. Frey and T. Strozzi) investigated the ability of a glacial moraine’s slope to stay intact, called shear strength, and modeled the potential of landslides and falling ice to cause GLOFs. After extensive field investigations, calculations and research into historical events, the study found several causal factors that can determine the severity of a GLOF.  These include size and angle of entry of a landslide,  shape and depth of the glacial lake, glacier thickness and human preventative engineering such as canals and supporting dams.  Frequency and size of a landslide is determined by the stability of surface material, a characteristic called shear strength, which can be influenced by something as subtle as the crystalline shape of the predominant mineral in the rock. The scientists determined that waves caused...

Read More

First global analysis of the societal impacts of glacier floods

Posted by on Jul 28, 2016 in All Posts, Communities, Featured Posts, Interviews, Science | 0 comments

First global analysis of the societal impacts of glacier floods

Spread the News:ShareTwo British researchers recently published the first global inventory and damage assessment of the societal consequences incurred by glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). They revealed that glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have been declining in frequency since the mid-1990s, with the majority released by ice dam failures. Glacial hazard specialists Jonathan Carrivick and Fiona Tweed spent 18 months scouring the records of over 1,348 GLOFs, determining that such floods have definitely claimed over 12,400 lives since the medieval period. Their work stems from a need to strengthen data on glacier lakes. “There was very very little quantitative data out there on the importance of glacier lakes, from a societal point of view,” Carrivick said in an interview with GlacierHub. He explained that this recent paper was a natural progression from his earlier research, which focused on modelling hydrological, geological and geomorphological processes. Based purely on frequency, Carrivick and Tweed found that north-west North America (mainly Alaska), the European Alps (mainly Switzerland), and Iceland are the “most susceptible regions” to GLOFs. However, the impacts of these events have have often been minimal, as they occur in sparsely populated, remote regions, and in places where resilience is high. The greatest damage has been inflicted upon Nepal and Switzerland — respectively accounting for 22 percent and 17 percent of the global total damage reported. When Carrivick applied the normalized ‘Damage Index,’ which considered GDPs of the affected country (used as a crude proxy for ability to mitigate, manage and recover), he found that Iceland, Bhutan and Nepal have suffered the “greatest national-level economic consequences of glacier flood impacts.” Historically, Asian and South American GLOFs have been the deadliest, taking the lives of 6,300 and 5,745 individuals since 1560 respectively. However, these figures are dominated by only two catastrophes, which accounted for 88 percent of the 12,445 fatalities confirmed by Carrivick and Tweed. The first, in December 1941, saw over 5,000 Peruvians perish in Huaraz, when a landslide cascaded into the glacial Lake Palcacocha. The second event, swept away more than 6,000 Indians from across Uttarakhand in June 2013, as torrential rains triggered outburst floods and landslides. The study’s authors adopted a method for normalizing damage assessments new to GLOF hazard analysis, striving to fairly compare the cataclysmic impacts of outburst flooding on communities around the world. They found that there has actually been a decline in number of floods since the 1990s, which was surprising to the researchers, given that a 2013 study which they had conducted found that the number and size of glacial lakes has increased, as the world’s ice masses have wasted. Carrivick stated that he was “very interested in the fact that, apparently, so few glaciers have lakes that have burst [0.7% of the total], on a global scale.” He added, “it beggars belief that there isn’t a higher percentage of those lakes that have burst at some point.” In their paper, the pair suggest that the “apparent decline” could be attributed to improved successful stabilisation efforts, natural resilience, greater awareness and preparedness in threatened communities, or declined number of GLOFs from ice-dammed lakes. An additional factor may be that some glacial floods are missing from the English-language record. Carrivick revealed, “We have a contact in China who says that there’s a lot of unpublished floods…that individual has not been able to send us the data yet.” Government restrictions on the flow of potentially sensitive information has contributed to this partial release of data. Carrivick also noted that new data is continually being published, in many cases in foreign languages. He referenced a recent issue of the Geological Journal, which...

Read More

Education Fuels Disaster Resiliency in Northern India

Posted by on Jul 5, 2016 in Adaptation, All Posts, Communities, Featured Posts, Policy and Economics | 0 comments

Education Fuels Disaster Resiliency in Northern India

Spread the News:ShareIn the Northern Indian states of Jammu and Kashmir, accelerated glacier melting in the Ladakh region has made communities increasingly vulnerable to glacier lake outburst floods, or GLOFs. These unpredictable natural disasters occur when glacier meltwater creates lakes at high elevations, which have the potential to overflow and cascade down the steep slopes of mountains. As temperatures in the Himalayan region continue to climb due to climate change, the number of glacier lakes in Ladakh has surged to over 266 as of 2014, making outburst floods an acute risk in the region. While engineering and infrastructure projects can decrease the chances of an outburst flood, many remote, high altitude communities in India do not have the economic means or technology to build expensive mitigation structures that could halt the effects of GLOFs. However, a recent study conducted by Naho Ikeda, Chiyuki Narama, and Sonam Gyalson found that community-based measures like engagement and education may provide an alternative path to increased GLOF resiliency in Ladakh. The Switzerland-based International Mountain Society (IMS) conducted the study in India, published earlier this year in the journal Mountain Research and Development. The research team developed a series of community workshops in Domkhar, a village in Ladakh that is a high risk community with at least 13 glacier lakes located in the watershed. The idea was to determine whether education and outreach were viable tools for protecting the villagers from glacier lake outburst floods. The workshop, held in May of 2012, brought together 120 community members, scientists, and translators to discuss a wide range of topics on glacier lake outburst floods. Over the course of four sessions, Ikeda and her colleagues discussed their findings from a 2010 field survey of local glacier lakes and distributed an informational booklet written in Ladakhi, the predominant local language. The workshop also gave researchers insight into the community members’ cultural practices, religious beliefs, and current understanding of the impacts of climate change on their local environment. The researchers’ concluded from their time in Domkhar that community members had a mixed level of knowledge of GLOFs and their associated risks. According to the report, community members expressed an understanding of glacier lakes and GLOFs that relied on a combination of their personal experiences with nature and their religious beliefs. One group of villagers explained that sacred animals, including horses and sheep, cause outburst floods when the community angers them. Others mentioned that the lakes are sacred because the Tibetan Buddhist temples throughout the region are reflected on the surface of the water. Religion was predominantly mentioned by older members of the community rather than younger villagers, reflecting the fact that cultural identity has played a large role in the Ladakhi community’s understanding of the natural world, although that notion may be shifting with younger generations. A larger number of workshop participants also discussed their observations of nature, including the animal species and local geography surrounding the glacier lakes. However, individual observations were not always accurate, as participants did not know how many glacier lakes were within the watershed or of the emergence of a new glacier lake in the area formed in 2011. Over the course of the day, community members displayed a curiosity and increasing knowledge of GLOFs that led to the adoption of a 7-point resolution to respond to a glacier lake outburst flood. The resolution included the development of a community-based GLOF monitoring committee, establishment of an evacuation plan, and discouraging construction near stream banks. While these measures require time and effort on the part of Domkhar residents, new technology and financial support are not necessary for...

Read More

Preparing Peruvian Communities for Glacier-based Adaptation

Posted by on Jun 27, 2016 in Adaptation, All Posts, Communities, Featured Posts, Policy and Economics | 0 comments

Preparing Peruvian Communities for Glacier-based Adaptation

Spread the News:ShareAs climate change quickens the pace at which Andean glaciers are melting, Peruvian communities located downstream from glaciers are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters. The Peruvian national and subnational governments, the Swiss Development Cooperation, the University of Zurich, and the international humanitarian group CARE Peru have executed a collaborative multidisciplinary project to help two affected communities respond to glacier retreat and the increased risk of disaster. The first phase of the project ran from November 2011 through 2015. The project’s second phase, which is expected to run from 2015 to 2018, continues its work of risk reduction and climate change adaptation, while expanding its scope to hydropower production research. Peru is home to one of world’s largest concentrations of tropical glaciers, most of which are located in the Cordillera Blanca in the Ancash region, along a section of the Andes in north central Peru. The Cordillera Blanca contains more than 500 square kilometers of glacier cover, accounting for roughly 25 percent of the world’s tropical glaciers. High mountain ecosystems such as the Cordillera Blanca are no stranger to major geophysical events, such as ice and rock avalanches, debris flows, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Glacier lake outburst floods are considered to have the most far-reaching impacts of any other glacial hazard. In the last few decades, Peru has already experienced several major natural disasters due to glacier melt and subsequent flooding. In 1970, a major earthquake in Ancash activated a glacial lake outburst flood and subsequent debris flow that destroyed the town of Yungay, killing around 20,000 people. More recently, in April of 2010, glacial lake Laguna 513 in the Ancash region triggered a flood outburst that created significant property damage in the downstream town of Carhuaz, which is home to roughly five thousand people. In order to mitigate the risk of future natural disasters, this collaborative project worked from 2011 to 2015 to enhance the adaptation capacities of two communities located downstream of glaciers: Santa Teresa, in Cuzco, and Carhuaz, in Ancash. The project aimed to better prepare and equip these two communities to deal with the threat of glacial lake outburst floods by creating specialized integrated risk reduction strategies. In Santa Teresa, a micro-watershed area of the Sacsara River, the project installed an comprehensive monitoring system, which provides the town with early flood warnings via radio communication tools, provided localized risk analysis, and supported the creation of community and municipal development plans, as well as the integration of emergency plans into 17 local schools. In Carhuaz, project collaborators helped the municipality establish a water resources management committee in order to increase the capacity of local and interagency decision-makers to collaborate in managing risk. The project also installed an early-warning system for glacier outburst floods, as well as planned evacuation routes and disaster responses. The project implemented curriculum plans containing climate change adaptation and risk management into 30 schools in Ancash. The project’s various scientific and technical experts also conducted flood scenario models, which they shared with local decision-makers to help identify areas of potential risk. To date, the project has trained more than 90 public officials, agency staff, and university professors on climate change, adaptation, and risk management measures. CARE Peru estimates that the project has directly benefited over six thousand people in these Carhuaz and Santa Teresa, and has indirectly benefited many more. The project particularly emphasized gender and power dynamics that contribute to vulnerability. The project trained local leaders on gender equality issues and women’s empowerment and encouraged balanced gender participation in the adaptation planning for both communities.  University of Zurich glaciologist and project contributor Christian Huggel...

Read More